Talk:Incarnate Trial Component Drop Rate

Drops by Leandro

   Time of Drop	Rarity	Trial	Time
   04-26-2011 02:19:26	Rare	BAF	00:17:12
   04-26-2011 03:00:27	Uncommon	Lambda	00:28:40
   04-26-2011 03:55:41	Common	BAF	00:22:09
   04-26-2011 23:14:45	Common	BAF	00:27:12
   04-27-2011 00:06:15	Uncommon	Lambda	00:31:19
   04-28-2011 04:32:54	Uncommon	Lambda	00:23:48
   04-28-2011 05:05:58	Uncommon	BAF	00:16:35
   04-28-2011 05:59:30	Very Rare	BAF	00:16:33
   06-04-2011 02:35:55	Uncommon	Lambda	00:22:02
   06-04-2011 03:13:20	Common	BAF	00:21:36
   06-05-2011 13:31:49	Uncommon	Lambda	00:30:46
   06-05-2011 14:18:46	Rare	BAF	00:19:52
   06-06-2011 22:26:58	Uncommon	Lambda	00:25:05
   06-07-2011 01:49:35	Uncommon	BAF	00:16:01
   06-08-2011 09:03:13	Uncommon	BAF	00:15:37
   06-08-2011 09:29:37	Rare	BAF	00:13:56
   06-08-2011 09:59:59	Uncommon	Lambda	00:19:33
   06-09-2011 15:34:34	Rare	Lambda	00:22:26
   06-09-2011 16:15:23	Common	BAF	00:15:57
   06-10-2011 12:12:52	Uncommon	Lambda	00:34:06
   06-10-2011 12:44:41	Uncommon	BAF	00:20:57
   06-10-2011 13:09:44	Uncommon	BAF	00:16:23
   06-10-2011 13:44:59	Uncommon	Lambda	00:26:05
   06-12-2011 12:16:01	Common	Lambda	00:21:24
   06-12-2011 12:42:30	Uncommon	BAF	00:14:21
   06-13-2011 23:06:32	Uncommon	BAF	00:15:47
   06-14-2011 23:55:33	Uncommon	Lambda	00:25:19
   06-15-2011 00:43:21	Common	BAF	00:35:33
   06-15-2011 20:08:34	Uncommon	BAF	00:14:45
   06-15-2011 20:48:55	Rare	Lambda	00:25:10
   06-17-2011 02:57:40	Uncommon	Lambda	00:23:06
   06-17-2011 04:24:27	Common	BAF	00:20:20
   06-21-2011 18:44:31	Rare	Lambda	00:22:48
   06-21-2011 19:11:25	Uncommon	BAF	00:17:15
   06-24-2011 00:47:20	Common	Lambda	00:26:33
   06-24-2011 01:16:15	Uncommon	BAF	00:17:27
   06-25-2011 05:34:04	Rare	BAF	00:18:51
   06-25-2011 06:03:25	Common	BAF	00:18:54
   06-26-2011 07:42:23	Very Rare	Lambda	00:29:29
   06-26-2011 08:19:41	Rare	BAF	00:21:11
   06-27-2011 06:50:43	Rare	BAF	00:16:21
   06-27-2011 07:27:51	Uncommon	BAF	00:15:40
   06-28-2011 01:49:06	Uncommon	BAF	00:15:56
   06-28-2011 03:55:09	Common	BAF	00:16:41
   06-28-2011 06:25:42	Uncommon	BAF	00:18:14
   06-28-2011 06:50:31	Common	BAF	00:17:27
   06-28-2011 07:25:29	Very Rare	BAF	00:19:03
   06-28-2011 13:34:46	Very Rare	Keyes	00:47:59
   06-28-2011 15:43:04	Very Rare	Keyes	00:41:37
   06-29-2011 10:33:26	Rare	BAF	00:17:06
   06-29-2011 11:34:19	Common	Keyes	00:43:28
   06-29-2011 12:25:36	Rare	BAF	00:17:19
   06-29-2011 14:10:47	Common	Lambda	00:19:52
   06-29-2011 16:21:02	Very Rare	Keyes	00:49:38
   06-29-2011 17:32:07	Common	Keyes	00:48:28
   06-30-2011 04:51:02	Rare	BAF	00:14:53
   06-30-2011 05:21:53	Rare	BAF	00:13:40
   06-30-2011 06:32:14	Common	Keyes	00:54:20
   06-30-2011 07:32:33	Rare	BAF	00:17:33
   06-30-2011 16:36:40	Uncommon	Keyes	00:44:33
   06-30-2011 17:42:02	Very Rare	Keyes	00:36:23
   07-01-2011 13:03:10	Rare	BAF	00:15:37
   07-01-2011 13:45:03	Common	Lambda	00:29:29
   07-01-2011 14:58:29	Uncommon	BAF	00:15:40
   07-01-2011 16:17:56	Uncommon	Keyes	00:42:38
   07-01-2011 17:50:40	Uncommon	Keyes	00:35:54
   07-01-2011 18:59:49	Common	Keyes	00:40:53
   07-02-2011 08:41:04	Uncommon	Keyes	00:36:38
   07-02-2011 16:19:48	Common	Keyes	00:39:18
   07-02-2011 17:01:01	Common	Keyes	00:31:46
   07-02-2011 18:07:19	Very Rare	Keyes	00:36:13
   07-02-2011 23:52:22	Uncommon	Lambda	00:33:42
   07-03-2011 12:28:53	Common	BAF	00:16:16
   07-03-2011 13:07:15	Uncommon	BAF	00:18:15
   07-03-2011 14:04:44	Common	Lambda	00:20:54
   07-03-2011 15:15:21	Common	Keyes	00:47:19
   07-03-2011 16:16:43	Very Rare	Keyes	00:33:21
   07-03-2011 17:07:54	Common	Keyes	00:34:39
   07-04-2011 08:01:36	Common	Lambda	00:20:03
   07-04-2011 13:33:08	Rare	BAF	00:15:33
   07-04-2011 15:48:13	Very Rare	Keyes	00:51:27
   07-04-2011 18:28:00	Uncommon	Keyes	00:42:45
   07-05-2011 14:43:20	Common	BAF	00:20:38
   07-05-2011 16:01:28	Rare	Keyes	00:38:39
   07-05-2011 17:12:11	Uncommon	Keyes	00:34:01
   07-06-2011 21:51:36	Uncommon	Keyes	00:45:37
   07-10-2011 22:25:01	Common	Lambda	00:22:27
   07-11-2011 00:54:37	Common	BAF	00:17:17
   07-11-2011 01:31:39	Common	BAF	00:18:20
   07-11-2011 02:03:09	Common	Lambda	00:25:34
   07-11-2011 23:52:04	Uncommon	BAF	00:14:41
   07-12-2011 00:29:00	Common	Lambda	00:23:39
   07-12-2011 00:53:18	Uncommon	BAF	00:17:11
   07-12-2011 01:20:50	Uncommon	Lambda	00:21:42
   07-12-2011 20:38:38	Uncommon	BAF	00:13:34
   07-12-2011 21:07:46	Uncommon	Lambda	00:21:43
   07-12-2011 22:01:31	Rare	Keyes	00:34:04
   07-13-2011 02:27:00	Uncommon	Lambda	00:26:49
   07-13-2011 14:34:04	Common	BAF	00:17:55
   07-13-2011 17:18:27	Common	BAF	00:16:32

Problem!

The devs have already made it pretty clear that the reward drops at the end of Incarnate Trials are not constant, but depend on the activity of the participants. Not only does each person individually have a different chance for drops, but the League as a whole needs to qualify for each tier of reward. If a League only qualifies for, say, Uncommon, then everyone will get Commons or Uncommons (or 10 Threads), totally throwing off the calculations for this article.

There's an inherent problem here because the data is unreliable. Either this article needs to be reworked/removed, or some controlled tests need to be conducted to retrieve correct data. --GuyPerfect 16:38, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

Um, not what I read from dev posts. The participation only determines if you get 10 threads or a component reward dialog. If you get a component reward dialog, all rarities are available. I'll hunt down the source and put it here for you in a sec. -- Leandro 17:21, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

The post I have in mind is here: [1]. On further review, it's not very clear. On the one hand, it makes it sound like there are two possible reward categories: 10 Threads or any of the 4 Component rarities. But there's other information that might suggest otherwise. In particular, this sentence catches my eye: "If your league does well, and you are a factor in that success, this will only increase your opportunity to earn a Very Rare component." This could be taken to mean that not only is it possible for players to not qualify for Very Rare Components (qualifying instead for lesser Components), but the activity of the League has a bearing on that. This could also be taken to mean that in the grand scheme of "10 Threads versus everything else," there needs to be a certain threshold of individual behavior AND league behavior to push you into the "everything else" category.

Then there's this one: "If you qualified for a component reward..." (sounds like "everything else")... "... you reached the level of participation for yourself and your league needed to have a chance at any component type." (sounds like the League can qualify for specific Component rarities?)

Baryonx's explanation was... lacking. Is there another source of information that explicitly states what categories of rewards exist for the Incarnate Trials? --GuyPerfect 18:29, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

This post seems to support the separation between "ten threads" and "component reward tables". -- Leandro 18:33, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

The logical side of me would say so as well (otherwise there would be multiple thresholds per event: one for each Component rarity)... But the analytical side of me spots inconsistencies. For instance, if all the Component rarities are just lumped together in one random roll, then how is it possible for players to be "rewarded with the Uncommon table more frequently than [the devs] anticipated"? If it's just a generic, pre-weighted group of rewards, there'd be W% Common, X% Uncommon, Y% Rare and Z% Very Rare, and those frequencies would be consistent with "anticipation."

Something smells awfully fishy. I'm not ready to believe that all Component rarities are treated equally. --GuyPerfect 18:48, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

The fact that they decreased the chance of getting an Uncommon component specifically indicates that the rarities are not treated equally. ~ User:Aggelakis/Sig1 19:59, 3 July 2011 (UTC)

Alright, my current theory is that Baryonx was cryptic because someone said so. They don't want to reveal the specifics of the participation metrics, sure, and maybe that secrecy got this information all munged up. If that's the case, then my guess is that there are in fact four separate participation thresholds for the trials: one for each Component rarity. If you don't even meet the Common threshold between self and League participation, you're stuck with 10 Incarnate Threads. But between your actions and those of your League, you can keep pushing to get Uncommon, Rare and Very Rare. Qualifying for a specific rarity does not guarantee you'll get it, but it does mean your random roll will have a chance of landing on it.

If that's how it works, the information in this article doesn't mean much. We'll need clarification from the devs before we can do much else with it. --GuyPerfect 02:52, 4 July 2011 (UTC)

Every single trial I have been on (which isn't *72*, but a large number), someone has gotten a Rare or Very Rare. A small-to-middling amount of time, someone gets the 10 threads. So either there are no additional thresholds and the components are simply a weighted drop chance, or it's stupidly easy to get to the higher thresholds *and* the components are a weighted drop chance. ~ User:Aggelakis/Sig1 03:17, 4 July 2011 (UTC)

I sent a PM to Baryonyx and Positron asking for clarification. With some luck, we'll get a proper answer. -- Leandro 03:55, 4 July 2011 (UTC)